【摘要】 充足、稳定的资金投入是中国减缓和适应气候变化、实现国家自主贡献(NDC)目标不可或缺的基础条件。本研究以自主开发的自下而上系统优化模型PECE为基础,耦合适应模块,扩展和构建了自下而上的气候资金需求综合评估方法学框架,从低碳能源、节能、森林碳汇、基础设施、农业、水资源、海岸带和相关海域、森林和其他生态系统、人体健康等领域出发,系统评估了中国实现国家自主贡献的减缓和适应资金需求,并结合对现有气候资金投入的评估,识别了中国落实国家自主贡献的潜在资金缺口,提出了相应的政策建议。研究发现,2016—2030年,中国实现国家自主贡献的总资金需求规模将达56万亿元左右,年均约3. 7万亿元,相当于2016年中国全社会固定资产投资总额的6. 3%。其中,平均每年减缓和适应气候变化的资金需求分别约占57%和43%,分别达2. 1和1. 6万亿元。且随着减缓气候变化力度的提高和面临的气候变化风险的增加,年均应对气候变化资金需求呈现加速增长态势,将从目前"十三五"的年均约2. 9万亿元,上升到"十四五"的约3. 8万亿元和"十五五"的约4. 5万亿元。与现有资金投入规模比,中国每年将面临约1. 4万亿元的资金缺口,提高气候资金投入和撬动气候投融资的需求非常迫切,既要不断扩大气候投融资规模,也要进一步调整气候投融资结构,加大对非水可再生能源、建筑和交通部门节能、智能电网和储能、可持续基础设施、防灾减灾等领域的投入,强化气候投融资工作和能力建设迫在眉睫。更多还原

【Abstract】 Adequate and stable investments are indispensable pre-conditions for China to mitigate and adapt to climate change and achieve its Nationally Determined Contribution( NDC). Based on the system optimization model PECE,coupled with the adaptation module,the study expanded and constructed a comprehensive bottom-up analytical framework and assessed the mitigation and adaptation financial needs in implementing China’s Nationally Determined Contribution. Both mitigation areas such as low-carbon energy,energy saving,forest carbon sink and adaptation areas such as infrastructure,agriculture,water resources,coastal zones and related sea areas,forests and other ecosystems,and human health have been covered. The study further identified the potential finance gaps by comparison with current financial inputs and put forward corresponding policy recommendations. Based on the analysis,the study finds out that between 2016-2030,China’s total finance needs to achieve its NDC targets will reach 56 trillion yuan,an average of 3. 7 trillion yuan per year,of which financial needs for mitigation and adaptation will reach an average of 2. 1 trillion yuan and 1. 6 trillion yuan respectively. With the enhancement in mitigation efforts and the increase in climate change risks,the average annual finance needs will increase accordingly,and will increase from the annual average of 2. 9 trillion in the 13 th Five Year Plan to 3. 8 trillion Five Year Plan in the 14 th Five Year Plan,and to 4. 5 trillion yuan for the 15 th Five Year Plan. Compared with the existing scale of financial investment,it will face a finance gap of 1. 4 trillion yuan each year. It is very necessary and urgent to increase and stimulate the investment in climate change,not only to expand the scale of climate investment,but also to further adjust the investment mode and structure of climate finance,with more attention on areas as non-hydropower renewable energy,energy saving in building and transportation sector,smart grids and energy storage,sustainable infrastructure,and disaster prevention and mitigation.更多还原